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2 direct mentions across 2 briefings, with 2 linked developments.
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According to Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, the statement that Palestinian statehood “is being erased from the table”; critics link his settlement authority to coalition politics.
Unverified development · updated through
According to Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, the statement that Palestinian statehood “is being erased from the table”; critics link his settlement authority to coalition politics.
Open source reportChronology
Off Leash update 21 Aug GAZA •The Israeli military began what a spokesman called "the next phase of the war" in Gaza and called up 60,000 reservists for the effort. Its troops have reached the edges of Gaza City and are preparing to encircle it and take control. •Meanwhile, a planning committee issued final approval for a contentious 3,400-unit West Bank settlement project called East One, or E1 for short. E1 was first proposed in 1995, but its approval was long delayed until now - in part over widespread concerns that E1's central location will disrupt the contiguity of the Palestinian-populated West Bank. •To Israeli hardliners like finance minister Bezalel Smotrich, that's exactly the point: after yesterday's approval, Smotrich gloated that the idea of a Palestinian state "is being erased from the table." Smotrich has been a driving force behind the recent acceleration in settlement approvals, and critics say Prime Minister Netanyahu has given Smotrich unprecedented - and unwarranted - authority over settlement plans because he needs Smotrich's party's support to stay in power. •Both moves - in Gaza and the West Bank - suggest Netanyahu isn't seriously considering the temporary ceasefire proposal Hamas agreed to this week. UKRAINE •Russia's Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, said that Russia would insist on being party to any future security guarantees for Ukraine, including those the U.S. is considering that Pres. Trump suggested could be "NATO-like." I suppose that means that if Russia attacks Ukraine post-peace, it will be obliged to retaliate on Ukraine's behalf against...itself? •Lavrov's bizarre comment seems like yet another example that Russia isn't ready to talk peace. •Meanwhile on the battlefield, Russian troops continue to inch forward using inefficient but sneaky tactics like sending small groups of footsoldiers across to regroup behind Ukrainian lines and attack. •Russia's broader goal appears to be to capture as much ground as possible so it can start peace talks from a better negotiating position - if its valiant stalling efforts fail and it's forced to start talks. CHINA •China's Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, returned from a two-day state visit to India with several trade and diplomatic agreements to rebuild and strengthen ties between the two Asian giants. Ties gradually frayed over their superpower rivalry, but cleaved in 2020 over a border dispute. •China and India now plan to reopen their shared (and still disputed) border in three places and facilitate visa approvals to improve trade flows. They'll also resume direct flights, which had been suspended since pandemic lockdowns. •Some analysts see the diplomatic rekindling as a result of U.S. trade pressure on India that has encouraged India to turn to other trade and geopolitical allies instead. •Separately, Chinese leader Xi Jinping paid a rare and unannounced visit to the Tibetan capital of Lhasa yesterday. Xi - who hadn't visited Lhasa since 2021 - said Beijing would "guide Tibetan Buddhism to adapt to socialist society," which probably means it will continue to impose the Communist Party's devoutly atheist values on resolutely spiritual Tibetan Buddhists in the region. AFGHANISTAN •After Chinese Foreign Minister Wang's visit to India, Wang flew to Kabul to offer Afghanistan's Taliban government new Chinese investment - particularly in infrastructure and mining (especially of lithium, iron, and copper) - and to invite Afghanistan to formally join the Belt and Road Initiative. •China's 176 construction contracts and investment pledges to Belt and Road members in the first half of 2025 totaled $124 billion. That's already more than the $122 billion that China pledged to members in all of 2024. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 12 June CHINA •Following two days of trade talks in London, the U.S. and China agreed on a framework for a longer-term detente in their trade war that would extend the temporary reciprocal tariff reprieve agreed last month. •The sticking point that kept last month's trade talks from reaching a lasting truce was China's refusal to lift export controls on rare earth minerals. U.S. officials seem content that the new framework resolves that impasse, but it's unclear whether it also addresses reciprocal non-tariff measures the U.S. imposed in response (such as curbs on Chinese student enrollment in U.S. universities). •The framework that came out of this week's summit will now be escalated to Presidents Trump and Xi for their approval. ECONOMY •A possible imminent U.S.-China trade deal wasn't factored into the World Bank's revised economic forecast released yesterday. That forecast predicted a decline in global economic growth from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.3% in 2025 - and a decline in U.S. economic growth forecast from 2.8% to 1.4% - due to trade wars like the one the U.S.-China framework aims to resolve. DRC •A new draft of a U.S. proposal for a Rwanda-DRC peace deal reportedly demands that Rwanda fully withdraw its troops from eastern DRC as a precondition for a ceasefire. •Rwanda's Pres. Kagame implausibly denies sending troops into DRC, but will nonetheless probably resist orders to withdraw them because he maintains they're necessary to counter vague threats from Hutu militias. SUDAN •Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) claimed it captured the strategic "triangle" region bordering Egypt and Libya. •The military - which has been fighting the RSF since April 2023 - seemed to corroborate the RSF's claim when it acknowledged that it retreated from the triangle region "as part of defensive arrangements to repel aggression." •Unverified local reports claimed that fighters loyal to Libya's eastern commander, Khalifa Haftar, crossed the border to help the RSF capture the triangle region. If confirmed, it would be the first known instance of Libyan meddling in Sudan's civil war. PAKISTAN •Likely jolted by last month's dust-up with India, Pakistan's military announced plans to boost its military spending by 20% to $9 billion for the fiscal year starting July 1. •That's a sharp increase - especially in the context of a 7% decrease in overall government spending for the next fiscal year. Parliament must still approve the budget. GAZA •In a letter to France's Pres. Macron and Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince MBS, Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas condemned Hamas's Oct. 7 attacks and called on Hamas to cede control of Gaza and release all hostages. •Abbas also promised various reforms to the PA, including new presidential elections to be held within a year. He has made and broken the same promise several times in the 29 years since the last presidential poll. •Abbas is hoping to meet Macron's conditions for recognizing Palestinian statehood as early as next week, and wants to position his PA to lead a potential new Palestinian nation. •Israel vehemently opposes Palestinian statehood, and has grown increasingly irritated with France for entertaining the idea. Prime Minister Netanyahu recently accused Pres. Macron of leading "a crusade against the Jewish state" by supporting Palestinian statehood. •Separately, five countries - Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, and the UK - slapped sanctions on two far-right Israeli ministers - interior minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and finance minister Bezalel Smotrich - for stoking settler violence in the West Bank and encouraging the expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza. 1/2
Open source report