Off Leash Intel · loading
3 direct mentions across 3 briefings, with 4 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Apple estimated that new U.S. tariffs on China would add $900 million to its second-quarter costs. Amazon said tariff and trade policies contributed to an inherently unpredictable outlook.
Unverified development · updated through
Apple estimated that new U.S. tariffs on China would add $900 million to its second-quarter costs. Amazon said tariff and trade policies contributed to an inherently unpredictable outlook.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Apple dossier
1 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Global mineral supply chain
Tantalum, tungsten and tin from different countries are mixed during smelting and pass through intermediaries, making it impossible for Apple to guarantee that its products contain no minerals originating in the DRC without controlling the entire supply chain.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash Update 3 May 2025 CHINA •China's commerce ministry said it's "evaluating" U.S. proposals to start trade talks, but the ministry's statement sounded cool on the idea: it warned that if the U.S. "wants to talk, it should show its sincerity and be prepared to correct its wrong practices” by abandoning “unilateral tariffs." •Separately, Apple estimated that new U.S. tariffs on China will increase its costs by $900 million in the second quarter alone. Amazon also warned this week that "tariff and trade policies" - among other pre-existing factors - make its future results "inherently unpredictable." IRAN •The U.S. slapped fresh sanctions on Iran's oil trade, and U.S. SecDef Hegseth separately posted a clear "Message to IRAN" on X: "We see your LETHAL support to The Houthis. We know exactly what you are doing, You know very well what the U.S. Military is capable of — and you were warned. You will pay the CONSEQUENCE at the time and place of our choosing." •Iran was relatively restrained in its response: its Foreign Ministry criticized the U.S. for "contradictory behavior and provocative statements" but refrained from making harsher comments that could derail ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear talks. •Most accounts suggest both sides are still optimistic about talks and broadly interested in seeing them advance to the harder, technical phase of negotiations. •However, Oman, which is mediating between the U.S. and Iran, said the fourth round of meetings will be postponed from tomorrow to an unspecified later date "for logistical reasons." Iran seems to want the U.S. to repeal its latest sanctions before talks resume, but my guess is that it wants to avoid further escalation and won't make new sanctions a sticking point. •Pres. Trump then threatened to impose secondary sanctions on any country that continues to buy oil from Iran. China is by far the largest importer of Iranian oil and would be affected most under secondary sanctions (although history suggests it would find ways to evade sanctions by skirting them or switching suppliers...Venezuela, for one, is lobbying Beijing to buy more of its crude as Chevron production winds down). RUSSIA and NORTH KOREA •Russia and North Korea held simultaneous ceremonies to mark the start of construction on the first road bridge between them (a rail bridge already links the two countries at the same spot). •The new project is a further sign of strengthening ties between the two outcast states. Their leaders have also become more overt about celebrating North Korea's support for Russia against Ukraine in recent weeks. AFGHANISTAN •A former Russian ambassador to Afghanistan said that Russia will help the Taliban government fight their "common enemy" of Islamic State-Khorasan. He was vague about what Russian support would entail, saying only that Russia "will provide our best assistance to the authorities of [Afghanistan] through specialised structures." •No country has formally recognized the Taliban government, but Russia seems to be moving in that direction: last month it removed the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations, to which it was added in 2003. DRC •DRC and Rwanda expect to submit a draft ceasefire agreement for eastern DRC today. Their temporary truce continues to hold better than their short-lived prior attempts at peace. Happy Birthday Dad, (Edgar D. Prince) RIP. We miss you every day.
Open source reportOff Leash with Brave: Surveillance capitalism, Privacy, Ads, and the Future of the Web We sat down with Luke Mulks, VP of Business Operations at Brave, for an insightful conversation about privacy, ethical advertising, and why Brave is rethinking how the internet works. Luke talks about what drew him to Brave, what most people still don’t realize about online tracking, and why “I have nothing to hide” misses the point. We also dig into the battle over default browsers, especially in light of the Google antitrust trial and Apple’s $20 billion deal to keep Google as the default on Safari. Brave is carving a different path. From privacy tools to our own partnership with Brave, preloading it on every UP Phone, this one covers a lot of ground. Watch or listen now: LINK TO PODCAST Learn more at Unplugged: https://t.co/fUPl3Rpkcs Brave Browser available at: https://t.co/OYSm2betXO Brave Search available at: https://t.co/nEBeSSWOHj **The Brave Technologist podcast, where Luke releases weekly episodes discussing the latest in tech at: https://t.co/OjoxiipMzy Luke Mulks on X: https://t.co/9hmEmZRiE8
Open source reportOff Leash update 27 Dec Russia •Finland's coast guard seized an oil tanker that it says is part of Russia's "shadow fleet" of vessels evading sanctions. Police claim the vessel was involved in another incident of "aggravated vandalism" that severed the Estlink 2 undersea cable between Finland and Estonia (and damaged four other subsea cables). Mozambique •Cautious reports from Mozambique suggest that post-election violence has escalated sharply since Monday, when the country's top court upheld the ruling Frelimo party's win - and opposition runner-up Venancio Mondlane urged his supporters to protest the ruling. •Much of the latest violence occurred during the prison riots reported yesterday, but separate incidents around the country added to the week's death toll - which one NGO estimated at 125. •Zimbabwe's Pres Mnangagwa - who currently chairs the Southern African Development Community (SADC) - said the SADC is standing by to help Mozambique resolve its turmoil...if Frelimo is willing to engage in talks. So far Frelimo hasn't even acknowledged that there's anything to discuss with the opposition. DRC •Following DRC's lawsuit accusing Apple subsidiaries of using conflict minerals from DRC, Apple said it would stop buying minerals that can be traced back to DRC and Rwanda. •The tricky thing about the minerals in question - tantalum, tungsten, and tin - is that supplies from all over the world get smelted together (often in China) before being sold to intermediaries and parts suppliers, so by the time a mineral-containing product gets to Apple, it's impossible to tell whether the mineral content came from DRC or anywhere else. I.e., short of capturing the entire supply chain (which Apple doesn't do), there's no way Apple can guarantee its minerals aren't coming from DRC. Somalia •Al Shabaab issued a statement eulogizing Mohamed Mire, a senior leader who served in a quasi-interior minister capacity. Shabaab's statement claimed Mire was killed in a U.S. airstrike in Lower Shabelle on Tuesday night, and that's probably correct - though the Pentagon hasn't yet confirmed whether it carried out strikes there this week. Other News •South Korea's parliament voted to impeach acting president Han Duck-soo for allegedly stalling the process of impeaching his predecessor, Yoon Suk Yeol. That throws the executive branch back into disarray, with no clear leader to guide through the crisis. Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok will likely become acting president now.
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