Off Leash Intel · loading
3 direct mentions across 3 briefings, with 4 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
The United States sanctioned three Iranian officials for involvement in former FBI agent Robert Levinson’s disappearance and probable death after he vanished in Iran in 2007.
Unverified development · updated through
The United States sanctioned three Iranian officials for involvement in former FBI agent Robert Levinson’s disappearance and probable death after he vanished in Iran in 2007.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Alliance of Sahel States dossier
2 mapped developments across 2 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Sahel
That the operation benefits the three military-led Alliance of Sahel States governments, which is receiving Russian support.
Approximate map position: regional centroid. This marker does not claim an exact event location.
Chronology
Off Leash Update 26 March UKRAINE AND RUSSIA •Following three days of indirect negotiations in Saudi Arabia, Ukraine and Russia each agreed to "end the use of force" in the Black Sea and ensure "safe passage" of vessels through it - but under certain conditions that still seem far off. •In particular, Russia said it wouldn't put down its arms until the U.S. and EU lift their embargoes on Russian agricultural products - something the White House pledged to help Russia accomplish (and something Pres. Zelensky opposes as "a weakening of positions and a weakening of sanctions." •The EU is unlikely to agree to lift its sanctions anyway - even under U.S. pressure - and Pres. Zelensky complained that Russia was shifting the goalposts for a deal with new demands. It's clear that it will take further negotiations to secure a concrete Black Sea truce. GAZA •Hundreds of Gazans turned out to protest against Hamas in Beit Lahia in northern Gaza. It was a rare rebuke of the militant group that has ruled Gaza since 2007 - and drew it into war with Israel with its Oct. 7 attacks. Armed Hamas fighters broke up the demonstrations. DRC •Rwandan and pro-DRC government forces resumed fighting in North and South Kivu yesterday - despite agreeing to a ceasefire a day earlier. That ceasefire now looks as worthless as the others that came - and failed - before it. SUDAN •Sudan's military is facing criticism for an airstrike on a market in Darfur that reportedly killed dozens to hundreds of civilians on Monday. •The military denied targeting civilians, but both it and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) fighting it have been credibly accused of shelling civilian areas. •Separately, the army retook Khartoum airport from the RSF. SAHEL •Nigerien junta leader Abdourahamane Tiani was sworn in as the country's transitional president at the start of a five-year "flexible" transition back to civilian rule. •That follows a similar playbook to the one used by the juntas in Niger's fellow Alliance of Sahel States (Burkina Faso and Mali): grab power in a coup, then hold onto it for an extended period by promising to eventually transfer it to an elected government. It remains to be seen whether any of them will actually relinquish rule. IRAN •The U.S. slapped sanctions on three Iranian officials for their alleged involvement in the disappearance and probable death of ex-FBI Special Agent Robert Levinson. Levinson disappeared in Iran in 2007, and is believed to have died in captivity - though Iran never acknowledged abducting him or admitted he died on their watch.
Open source reportOff Leash update 27 Feb Ukraine •The new U.S.-Ukraine mineral deal is taking shape quickly: it was only announced Tuesday (though speculation was swirling before that), and Pres. Zelensky will fly to Washington tomorrow to sign the final agreement. •Negotiators leaked a draft of the agreement dated Tuesday to the media, and several outlets published the full text (https://t.co/WCfpbsvV3e). Some takeaways: oUkraine will put half of its revenues from future mineral and energy sales into a new, U.S.-controlled investment fund that will reinvest some of the funds into rebuilding Ukraine. oThe fund will only draw on revenues from new projects; proceeds from existing mines, oil wells, etc. are not part of this arrangement. oThe only reference to U.S. security guarantees is highly noncommittal - paragraph 10 says the U.S. "supports Ukraine’s effort to obtain security guarantees needed to establish lasting peace" - but Zelensky said he's content with that wording. Trump told his cabinet the onus for security guarantees should be on Europe - not the U.S. oTrump's initial demands for a $500 billion contribution target and Ukraine's commitment to repay twice the amount of any future U.S. aid were both omitted from the draft. •Ukraine has large untapped reserves of several critical minerals whose development could contribute to this fund, including uranium (Europe's largest reserves!), graphite, lithium, titanium, natural gas, and rare earths. However, around 40% of its mineral resources are in regions Russia controls - and would likely keep in a peace deal. Gaza •Hamas and Israel both fulfilled their part of a delicate hostage-prisoner swap yesterday: Hamas returned the remains of four deceased hostages - and crucially, did so without any of the macabre theatrics that marred prior handovers - and Israel began releasing the 600-plus Palestinian prisoners it agreed to free in return. •This swap went smoothly, but the Gaza ceasefire remains fragile, and Israel and Hamas still haven't agreed on terms for the second phase that begins on Sunday. •Israel estimates that Hamas now holds about 25 living and 30 deceased hostages. Syria •Prominent Syrians who attended Pres. al Sharaa's two-day nation-building conference this week left underwhelmed. Several said the summit was poorly organized, left out key stakeholders (like the Syrian Democratic Forces), and failed to make meaningful progress towards planning Syria's future. Venezuela •Pres. Trump announced that he was cancelling Biden-era concessions that allowed Chevron to continue producing and exporting Venezuelan oil because Pres. Maduro failed to implement promised electoral and immigration reforms. •Chevron's license to continue production and export despite sanctions brought an estimated $4 billion into Maduro's state coffers and represented around a quarter of Venezuelan oil production while it was in force. Sahel •The Alliance of Sahel States - Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger - unveiled a new flag for the triad their juntas formed in opposition to ECOWAS. •In keeping with their modus operandi of doing the opposite of whatever their former colonizer - France - would do, the flag they designed is an affront to modern vexillology that breaks all the important rules of flag design (no lettering, simple design a child could draw from memory, 2-3 basic colors that contrast well, etc.)
Open source reportOff Leash update 1 May Russia •Finland's national airline, Finnair, reported that some of its recent flights were interrupted because of radar jams hear the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. •Russia seems to be responsible for the jams, but - as The Economist explains - its interference is probably more defensive than nefarious: Kaliningrad is heavily militarized, and the jams are probably designed to scramble Ukrainian attack drones targeting Russian military sites there. Gaza •SecState Blinken will meet PM Netanyahu and other top Israeli officials today, and is expected to press them to speed up aid shipments to Gaza. •Blinken and other diplomats have been encouraging Israel to stall its ground invasion of Rafah to improve odds for a ceasefire deal, but Netanyahu reaffirmed that the Rafah operation will go ahead "with or without" a deal. •Separately, the UN's International Court of Justice rejected Nicaragua's case against Germany for shipping weapons to Israel. China •China's latest and most advanced aircraft carrier, the Fujian, left the Jiangnan Shipyard for its first sea trials. Following the trials, the 80,000-ton Fujian will become the third carrier in China's fleet, after the 66,000-ton Shandong and the 60,000-ton Liaoning. Haiti •Haiti's new transitional council selected little-known former sports minister Fritz Bélizaire to be the country's new interim prime minister as it tries to root out gangs and establish a stable government. •Bélizaire replaced Michel Patrick Boisvert, who became interim PM only last week when the council formally took over from ousted (and unelected) PM Henry. •Bélizaire may not last long either: he only won the support of four of the council's nine members, and the other five indicated they didn't know him well enough to appoint him. DRC •UN peacekeepers ended operations in South Kivu for good this week, leaving MONUSCO active in only North Kivu and Ituri provinces - which are currently facing worse violence than South Kivu. By the end of the year, the UN's longest and costliest peacekeeping mission will fully wind down and exit DRC. Sahel •Mali said its forces - along with Tuareg fighters - killed Islamic State commander Abu Huzeifa (aka Higgo), who planned the 2017 attack that killed four U.S. troops in Tongo Tongo, Niger. •The operation took place in Liptako, which is where the porous borders of three junta-run countries - Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger - meet. •Its success is a strategic win for the three juntas, who recently banded together (with Russian support) to form the anti-extremist Alliance of Sahel States after they were evicted from the regional ECOWAS bloc following their coups. Sudan •Amidst the looming spectre of a second genocide in Darfur, the U.S. asked the UAE and other allies to stop arming the Rapid Support Forces. (The UAE insists it "is not supplying any arms or ammunition to any faction engaged in the ongoing conflict in Sudan," but evidence suggests it actually is.) Yemen •Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels claimed a drone strike on a container ship in the Red Sea on Friday, and yesterday authorities confirmed their claim. •The ship they struck was the Portuguese-flagged MSC Orion, and this was their longest-range confirmed strike yet: it occurred around 375 miles (600 km) off the coast of Yemen. •The Orion sustained only minor damage and continued its voyage. Afghanistan •Islamic State (IS) claimed Monday's attack at a Shia mosque in Herat that killed six, including the imam. IS is the main instigator of anti-Shia attacks in Afghanistan, so its claim wasn't a surprise. 1/2
Open source report